PhD Economics, Göttingen · Universidad de Talca
Carlos Villalobos
Economist|Researcher & International Policy Consultant|Public Finance, Inequality, Energy & Social Protection
Economics is not Causal, it is Epistemic
Paper “Fiscal capacity and the flypaper effect” accepted — forthcoming in Public Choice.
Joined the Clean Cooking technical roundtable (Mesa de Cocción Limpia), Ministry of Energy, Chile.
Appointed to the Advisory Board of The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).
Elected University Councilor (Consejero Universitario), Universidad de Talca.
One economist, two vantage points: research and policy.
I am an economist specializing in poverty analysis, public finance, and development economics. I hold a PhD in Economics from the University of Göttingen; my research combines rigorous quantitative methods with applied policy analysis.
I serve as Assistant Professor at Universidad de Talca, Chile — where I also lead the Water & Economy research line of the UNESCO Chair in Surface Hydrology — and have held teaching appointments at Universität Heidelberg and the University of Göttingen. Alongside academia, I have worked as a consultant for the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, UNICEF, UNDP, USAID, the European Commission and the Pan American Development Foundation, on projects spanning Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe and the Middle East.
Languages
Spanish (native) · English (C2) · German (C2) · Portuguese (reading)
Affiliations
Universidad de Talca
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics & Business
UNESCO Chair in Surface Hydrology
Associate Researcher · Lead, Water & Economy line
Universität Heidelberg
Lecturer & Research Associate, 2012–2018
University of Göttingen
PhD in Economics · Lecturer & Research Associate, 2009–2015
Research areas
Poverty Analysis
Measurement, monetary & multidimensional approaches, redundancy.
Public Finance
Fiscal capacity, unconditional transfers, the flypaper effect.
Energy Economics
Energy poverty, cross-subsidies.
Health Economics
Emergency nutrition, malnutrition, COVID-19 prevalence.
Development Economics
Inequality, migration, vocational training evaluation, water–welfare nexus.
Structural Epistemology
Belief formation in complex systems, epistemic health.
Current funded projects
Governance, the political economy of intergovernmental transfers, and the flypaper effect.
Prevalence, incidence, and risk factors of elder mistreatment in older adults.
Empowering productive sectors with green hydrogen in the Araucanía Region, Chile.
Advisory work across three continents
For multilateral organizations and governments — from poverty measurement and targeting systems to energy policy and social protection.
Current & recent advisory and leadership
Clean Cooking technical roundtable — Ministry of Energy, Chile
CurrentMember, Inter- & Transdisciplinary Evaluation Panel — ANID · core group
CurrentElected University Councilor — Universidad de Talca
CurrentAdvisory Board Member — The Pakistan Development Review, PIDE
CurrentLead, Water & Economy research line — UNESCO Chair in Surface Hydrology
CurrentMeasurement & subsidy-targeting studies — cooperation with the Ministry of Energy, Chile · local & national
ongoingPrincipal Technical Advisor, Strategic Roundtable for Energy Poverty — Ministry of Energy, Chile · Law 21.472
2022–2023Keynote speaker — Dutch Entrepreneurial Development Bank (FMO)
2022International adviser — Academics Stand Against Poverty, Venezuela chapter
2021–presentDirector, Center for Applied Economics Research (CIEA) — Universidad de Talca
2019–2020Selected engagements
The World Bank
Income inequality dynamics, Honduras 2007–2010 (2012)
Inter-American Development Bank
Poverty mapping and social expenditure targeting, Bahamas (2013)
Proxy Means Testing for social programs, Barbados (2015)
UNICEF
Impact of the Kurdistan Regional Government's investment budget on children, Iraq (2012)
UNDP
Background paper, Regional Human Development Report for Latin America (2009–2010)
USAID / Mercy Corps
Final evaluation, PROCOMIDA food security & nutrition program, Guatemala (2015)
UNICEF & UNDP — Government of Belize
Comprehensive review of Belize's social protection system (ISPA / CODI), for the Ministry of Human Development (2015–2017)
Ministry of Energy, Government of Chile
Redesign of the electricity tariff protection policy for the most vulnerable 40% — evidence of PEC2 mis-targeting (56.7% assignment error); the RSH-based mechanism was adopted in the national Action Plan 2023–2030 (2022–2023)
Pan American Development Foundation
National evaluation of community food-assistance canteens and school kitchens, Venezuela — anthropometric data for 9,000+ children; designed the Dynamic Nutritional Vulnerability Composite Index (2025)
Caritas Venezuela · Action Against Hunger · MSF / Fe y Alegría
Humanitarian nutrition evaluations with Susana Raffalli, Venezuela & Guatemala (2017–2019)
European Commission — ENEGE Programme
Gender and income inequality across 29 European economies, with S. Klasen (2014–2015)
DIW Berlin
Real consumption aggregates for Mongolia (HIES / LSMS), for World Bank operations (2010)
Several engagements delivered as Senior Economist (core team) at ECI Gestión para el Desarrollo Humano, 2009–2018.
Fig. 1 — Advisory & research engagements from Talca, Chile · 2009–2026.
Selected publications
Fiscal capacity and the flypaper effect
Villalobos, C. — Public Choice, accepted for publication.
Household constraints and dysfunctional rural–urban migration
Villalobos, C. & J. Riquelme — Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 2023
Energy poverty measures and the identification of the energy poor
Villalobos, C., C. Chávez & A. Uribe — Energy Policy, 152, 2021
Recent Patterns of Stunting and Wasting in Venezuelan Children: Programming Implications for a Protracted Crisis
Raffalli, S. & Villalobos, C. — Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 2021
Diverging identification of the poor: A non-random process. Chile 1992–2017
Klasen, S. & Villalobos, C. — World Development, 130, 2020
SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World
Villalobos, C. — Frontiers in Public Health, 8, 2020
Distribution dynamics of Human Development in Mexico 1990–2010
Villalobos-Barría, C., S. Klasen & S. Vollmer — Review of Income and Wealth, 62(S1), 2016
The impact of SENAI's vocational training program on employment, wages, and mobility in Brazil: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa?
Villalobos-Barría, C. & S. Klasen — The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 62, 2016
Book & chapters
Economic Inequality in Latin America: Migration, Education, and Structural Change — Peter Lang, 2013. Chapters in Research Handbook on Poverty and Inequality (Edward Elgar, 2023) and The New Policy Model, Inequality and Poverty in Latin America (Oxford University Press, 2014).
Full list in the CV →Essays where research meets policymaking
All essays →12 Jun 2026 · Epistemology
Economics is not causal. It is epistemic.
We keep asking what causes what. The more consequential question is what our models allow us — and the institutions we advise — to think.
Read →28 May 2026 · Energy Poverty
The invisible face of energy poverty
Chile measures income poverty every two years, and does it well. What households burn to cook dinner remains largely unseen — and what is unseen is unbudgeted.
Read →15 Aug 2021 · Trade & Food Security
A complex world
In the nineties, open trade looked irreversible. Three shocks later — nationalism, a trade war, a pandemic — food security is back on the rich world’s agenda, and Chile’s export model needs to think, not just grow.
Read →Universidad de Talca
Visiting lecturer 2006–2007 · Faculty 2016–present
Universität Heidelberg
Lecturer & Research Associate · 2012–2018
University of Göttingen
Lecturer & Research Associate · 2009–2015
Teaching economics since 2006.
(+56) 9-5529-4180
Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad de Talca, Av. Lircay S/N, Talca, Chile